Russian Arms
'For multiple decades West preferred military dictatorship next to us as preferred partner...": Jaishankar defends Russian arms used by Indian forces
West providing weapons to Pakistan for years: EAM Jaishankar defends use of Russian arms
What's the News ?
Defending the use of Russian arms by Indian forces, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Monday hit out at Western countries for choosing military dictatorships as preferred partners and not supplying India with weapons for decades.
He made these remarks while addressing a press conference along with Australian counterpart Penny Wong after both ministers held the 13th Foreign Ministers Framework Dialogue (FMFD).
The statements
"We have a long-standing relationship with Russia, and this relationship has served our interests well. We have a substantial inventory of Soviet and Russian-origin weapons" "This inventory grew for various reasons including the West not supplying weapons to India for decades and in fact seeing the military dictatorship next to us as a preferred partner."
History of Russia-India Defence relations
The Soviet Union was an important supplier of defence equipment for several decades, and this role has been inherited by the Russian federation.
In December 1988, an India-Russia co-operation agreement was signed, which resulted in the sale of a multitude of defence equipment to India and also the emergence of the countries as development partners as opposed to purely a buyer-seller relationship.
In 1997, Russia and India signed a ten-year agreement for further military-technical cooperation encompassed a wide range of activities, including the purchase of completed weaponry, joint development and production, and joint marketing of armaments and military technologies.
In 2012, both countries signed a defence deal worth $2.9 billion during President Putin's visit to India for the 42 new Sukhois to be produced under license by defence PSU Hindustan Aeronautics.
In October 2018, India inked the historic agreement worth US$5.43 billion with Russia to procure five S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile defence system, one of the best missile defence system in the world ignoring America's CAATSA act.
BALLY OF INDIA
List of Russian weapons
🔹BrahMos cruise missile programme
🔹Sukhoi Su-30MKI programme
🔹Ilyushin/HAL Tactical Transport Aircraft
🔹Kamov KA-226T twin-engine utility helicopters
🔹S-400 Triumf
🔹T-90S Bhishma
🔹Akula-ll nuclear submarine
🔹INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier
🔹Tu-22M3 bombers
🔹MiG-29
🔹Mil Mi-17
🔹Ilyushin Il-76 Candid
Russia as a Reliable friend
On August 9, 1971, India signed a 'Peace and Friendship' treaty with the Soviet Union. In 1971, as India faced an unacceptable refugee burden, it faced a dire situation.
The US and Britain as well as China were on Pakistan's side in the upcoming conflict. The only course open to India was to bring in the countervailing force of the Soviet Union on its side.
The 'Peace and Friendship' treaty ensured that India checkmated possible Anglo-American and Chinese help to Pakistan.
Pakistan launches Operation Changiz khan
To the Pakistani leadership, it became clear that armed Indian intervention and secession of East Pakistan were becoming inevitable.
On 3 December, Pakistan launched Operation Chengiz Khan, marking the official initiation of hostilities of the Indo-Pak war of 1971.
US helps Pakistan
On 8 December, Washington received mengence reports that India was planning an offensive into West Pakistan.
It was in this situation that the United States dispatched a ten-ship naval task force, the US Task Force 74, from the Seventh Fleet off South Vietnam into the Bay of Bengal.
The task force was to be headed by USS Enterprise, at the time and still the largest aircraft carrier in the world.
Support of UK
At the same time, UK dispatched its aircraft carrier HMS Eagle in the Arabian Sea. If went according to the plan, India would be caught in 'pincer' attack.
The US in Bay of Bengal, UK in the Arabian Sea, while Pakistan on land, India was caught.
India sends SOS to Moscow
India quietly sent Moscow a request to activate a secret provision of the Indo-Soviet security treaty, under which Russia was bound to defend India in case of any external aggression.
To counter this two-pronged British-American threat, Russia dispatched a nuclear-armed flotilla from Vladivostok on December 13.
The 1971 war is considered to be modern India's finest hour, in military terms.
The quick reaction of the Indian army, navy, and air force; a brass led by the legendary Sam Manekshaw; and ceaseless international lobbying by the political leadership worked well to set up the victory and liberation of Bangladesh.
Current scenario
Invasion in Ukraine has created a crisis for the Russia's already weakened defense manufacturing sector, which will now struggle to export equipment in the near future. This will present India, the largest importer of Russian weapons, with a strategic dilemma.
New Delhi will have to choose whether to continue importing arms from Russia in the long run and, based on that decision, what the best substitutes are in the meantime.
Aftermath of War
India is at a strategic crossroads: It can remain dependent on Russian arms, seek alternative suppliers, or develop indigenous production.
India can neither rely on Russia in the short term nor manufacture substitutes for Russian equipment indigenously within the next five years.
New threat from China ?
India faces an additional threat because of Russia's relationship with China.
If Russia becomes more dependent on China due to the war's debilitating effects, China would then be incentivized to import more Russian weapons or acquire stakes in Russian defense manufacturing firms.
The risk for New Delhi is that China could use this leverage to limit Russia's ability to export to India.
Finding alternative
In the short term, India may pursue a combination of policies to replace low-end equipment suppliers and seek new suppliers for spare parts to reduce its immediate dependency on Russia.
One option would be Israel, which has upgraded avionics for its Soviet-era planes and older French Mirage-2000s.
India is also evaluating Bulgaria, Poland, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine as potential suppliers of spare parts for India's Su-30MKI and MiG-29 fighter jets.
Conclusion
Whether India chooses to pursue indigenous production, continue with Russian imports, or seek alternative external suppliers will reflect the broader course of its foreign policy.
Given that India has long sought strategic autonomy and flexibility, it will likely prefer hedging and self sufficiency rather than moving from dependence on one external supplier to dependence on another.
Therefore, we expect India to pursue a mixed strategy in the short run: relying on Russia for critical systems where necessary while also working to diversify and find alternative suppliers.
In the long run, however, India will focus on indigenously manufacturing weapons.
